Transitions less than 0.4% are not shown. Hover over the flows to see
exact percentages and the degree of uncertainty, represented by the
maximun R-hat value; hover over the nodes to see total percentages for
each party in a given year and to highlight the flows into and out of
that party from the previous year and into the following year.
Percentages may differ slightly from those in the transition tables
below due to rounding.
|
Estimated Voter Transitions from 1851 to 1852
|
|
|
Democrat
|
Whig
|
Free Soil
|
Non-voting
|
share in 1851
|
|
Democrat
|
26.4
|
3.6
|
0.2
|
2.3
|
32.6
|
|
Whig
|
4.3
|
23.1
|
0.4
|
3.6
|
31.3
|
|
Free Soil
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
2.0
|
0.2
|
2.8
|
|
Non-voting
|
2.6
|
3.0
|
0.5
|
27.2
|
33.3
|
|
share in 1852
|
33.6
|
30.0
|
3.1
|
33.3
|
100.0
|
|
Estimated Voter Transitions from 1852 to 1853
|
|
|
Democrat
|
Whig
|
Free Soil
|
Non-voting
|
share in 1852
|
|
Democrat
|
28.4
|
0.8
|
0.6
|
3.8
|
33.6
|
|
Whig
|
1.9
|
19.5
|
5.4
|
3.2
|
30.0
|
|
Free Soil
|
0.1
|
0.2
|
2.6
|
0.2
|
3.1
|
|
Non-voting
|
1.5
|
0.9
|
0.7
|
30.2
|
33.3
|
|
share in 1853
|
31.9
|
21.4
|
9.3
|
37.4
|
100.0
|
|
Estimated Voter Transitions from 1853 to 1854
|
|
|
Democrat
|
Whig
|
Free Soil
|
Temperance
|
Non-voting
|
share in 1853
|
|
Democrat
|
26.0
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.4
|
4.6
|
31.9
|
|
Whig
|
0.8
|
15.4
|
0.4
|
3.8
|
1.0
|
21.4
|
|
Free Soil
|
0.8
|
1.5
|
1.4
|
4.4
|
1.2
|
9.3
|
|
Non-voting
|
1.1
|
2.2
|
0.6
|
2.2
|
31.3
|
37.4
|
|
share in 1854
|
28.7
|
19.8
|
2.6
|
10.8
|
38.1
|
100.0
|
|
Estimated Voter Transitions from 1854 to 1855
|
|
|
Democrat
|
Whig
|
Know Nothing
|
Non-voting
|
share in 1854
|
|
Democrat
|
17.3
|
1.3
|
7.8
|
2.3
|
28.7
|
|
Whig
|
2.8
|
4.7
|
9.8
|
2.5
|
19.8
|
|
Free Soil
|
0.2
|
0.4
|
1.2
|
0.8
|
2.6
|
|
Temperance
|
2.0
|
1.3
|
6.3
|
1.2
|
10.8
|
|
Non-voting
|
4.6
|
1.3
|
2.6
|
29.6
|
38.1
|
|
share in 1855
|
26.9
|
9.0
|
27.7
|
36.4
|
100.0
|
|
Estimated Voter Transitions from 1855 to 1856
|
|
|
Democrat
|
Whig
|
Know Nothing
|
Republican
|
Non-voting
|
share in 1855
|
|
Democrat
|
18.5
|
0.2
|
3.6
|
0.8
|
3.6
|
26.9
|
|
Whig
|
2.7
|
0.5
|
2.8
|
2.0
|
1.0
|
9.0
|
|
Know Nothing
|
7.3
|
0.2
|
16.1
|
1.1
|
3.0
|
27.7
|
|
Non-voting
|
3.4
|
0.3
|
2.9
|
2.7
|
27.3
|
36.4
|
|
share in 1856
|
31.9
|
1.2
|
25.4
|
6.6
|
34.9
|
100.0
|
|
Estimated Voter Transitions from 1856 to 1857
|
|
|
Democrat
|
Republican
|
Non-voting
|
share in 1856
|
|
Democrat
|
25.6
|
1.2
|
5.1
|
31.9
|
|
Whig
|
0.6
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
1.2
|
|
Know Nothing
|
1.3
|
20.2
|
3.9
|
25.4
|
|
Republican
|
0.2
|
5.9
|
0.5
|
6.6
|
|
Non-voting
|
2.4
|
2.9
|
29.6
|
34.9
|
|
share in 1857
|
30.1
|
30.7
|
39.2
|
100.0
|