Lex Renda, in his 1991 dissertation,
The Polity and the Party System:
Connecticut and New Hampshire, 1840–1876, estimated voter
transitions in Connecticut elections using Leo Goodman’s 1953 method of
ecological regression. Below I compare my estimates to his for the
transitions from the 1853 to 1854 elections and from the 1854 to 1855
elections.
|
Voter Transitions from 1853 to 1854, estimated using
multinomial–Dirichlet
|
|
|
Democrat
|
Whig
|
Free Soil
|
Temperance
|
Non-voting
|
share in 1853
|
|
Democrat
|
26.0
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.4
|
4.6
|
31.9
|
|
Whig
|
0.8
|
15.4
|
0.4
|
3.8
|
1.0
|
21.4
|
|
Free Soil
|
0.8
|
1.5
|
1.4
|
4.4
|
1.2
|
9.3
|
|
Non-voting
|
1.1
|
2.2
|
0.6
|
2.2
|
31.3
|
37.4
|
|
share in 1854
|
28.7
|
19.8
|
2.6
|
10.8
|
38.1
|
100.0
|
|
Voter Transitions from 1853 to 1854, estimated by Lex Renda using
Goodman
|
|
|
Democrat
|
Whig
|
Free Soil
|
Temperance
|
Non-voting
|
share in 1853
|
|
Democrat
|
31.1
|
-0.5
|
-1.6
|
2.7
|
0.3
|
32.0
|
|
Whig
|
-1.0
|
19.4
|
2.1
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
21.5
|
|
Free Soil
|
0.1
|
1.2
|
2.9
|
4.1
|
0.9
|
9.3
|
|
Non-voting
|
-0.8
|
0.1
|
-0.7
|
3.4
|
35.2
|
37.2
|
|
share in 1854
|
29.4
|
20.2
|
2.7
|
11.1
|
36.6
|
100.0
|
|
Voter Transitions from 1854 to 1855, estimated using
multinomial–Dirichlet
|
|
|
Democrat
|
Whig
|
Know Nothing
|
Non-voting
|
share in 1854
|
|
Democrat
|
17.3
|
1.3
|
7.8
|
2.3
|
28.7
|
|
Whig
|
2.8
|
4.7
|
9.8
|
2.5
|
19.8
|
|
Free Soil
|
0.2
|
0.4
|
1.2
|
0.8
|
2.6
|
|
Temperance
|
2.0
|
1.3
|
6.3
|
1.2
|
10.8
|
|
Non-voting
|
4.6
|
1.3
|
2.6
|
29.6
|
38.1
|
|
share in 1855
|
26.9
|
9.0
|
27.7
|
36.4
|
100.0
|
|
Voter Transitions from 1854 to 1855, estimated by Lex Renda using
Goodman
|
|
|
Democrat
|
Whig
|
Know Nothing
|
Non-voting
|
share in 1854
|
|
Democrat
|
19.1
|
-2.2
|
10.5
|
1.2
|
28.7
|
|
Whig
|
5.6
|
7.8
|
6.6
|
-0.3
|
19.7
|
|
Free Soil
|
-2.3
|
1.0
|
2.5
|
1.4
|
2.6
|
|
Temperance
|
2.5
|
2.9
|
6.2
|
-0.8
|
10.8
|
|
Non-voting
|
2.7
|
-0.2
|
2.6
|
33.1
|
38.2
|
|
share in 1855
|
27.6
|
9.3
|
28.5
|
34.6
|
100.0
|