By Connecticut law, voters deposited ballots for probate judge in a separate ballot box from the one into which they deposited ballots for statewide offices. Almost all voters used printed ballots that had been handed to them by political operatives who worked the crowd outside the voting window.

The close correlation of the votes for statewide offices demonstrates the voters’ tendency to accept a ballot from a representative of one of the parties. The much weaker correlation of probate judge votes with those for statewide offices suggests either that operatives offered a combination of ballots that voters would be most likely to accept or that voters accepted ballots from different operatives for different offices. In either case, the weaker correlation for probate judge votes suggests that voters were less consistent in their party preferences than the “party period” model would suggest.

Because of the large number of candidates for probate judge, I have not attempted to identify them by party. Instead, I have assigned to the top three vote-getters in a given town and year the parties of the gubernatorial candidate in the same position for that town and year. This assumption produces the highest possible correlation between probate judge and gubernatorial votes, making the low correlations that are calculated all the more striking.

Correlation of Democratic vote tallies for statewide offices, 1849-1857
Governor Lieutenant Governor Secretary of the State Treasurer Judge of Probate
Governor 1.000 0.876 0.999 0.997 0.010
Lieutenant Governor 0.876 1.000 0.877 0.879 0.010
Secretary of the State 0.999 0.877 1.000 0.997 0.010
Treasurer 0.997 0.879 0.997 1.000 0.012
Judge of Probate 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.012 1.000
Correlation of Whig vote tallies for statewide offices, 1849-1857
Governor Lieutenant Governor Secretary of the State Treasurer Judge of Probate
Governor 1.000 0.971 0.993 0.991 0.029
Lieutenant Governor 0.971 1.000 0.971 0.967 0.022
Secretary of the State 0.993 0.971 1.000 0.997 0.031
Treasurer 0.991 0.967 0.997 1.000 0.031
Judge of Probate 0.029 0.022 0.031 0.031 1.000
Correlation of Free Soil vote tallies for statewide offices, 1849-1857
Governor Lieutenant Governor Secretary of the State Treasurer Judge of Probate
Governor 1.000 0.997 0.783 0.790 -0.019
Lieutenant Governor 0.997 1.000 0.778 0.787 -0.022
Secretary of the State 0.783 0.778 1.000 0.847 -0.033
Treasurer 0.790 0.787 0.847 1.000 -0.036
Judge of Probate -0.019 -0.022 -0.033 -0.036 1.000
Correlation of Temperance vote tallies for statewide offices, 1849-1857
Governor Lieutenant Governor Secretary of the State Treasurer Judge of Probate
Governor 1.000 0.995 0.997 0.993 0.017
Lieutenant Governor 0.995 1.000 0.997 0.994 0.020
Secretary of the State 0.997 0.997 1.000 0.996 0.020
Treasurer 0.993 0.994 0.996 1.000 0.020
Judge of Probate 0.017 0.020 0.020 0.020 1.000
Correlation of Know Nothing vote tallies for statewide offices, 1849-1857
Governor Lieutenant Governor Secretary of the State Treasurer Judge of Probate
Governor 1.000 0.988 0.980 0.964 -0.028
Lieutenant Governor 0.988 1.000 0.968 0.961 -0.027
Secretary of the State 0.980 0.968 1.000 0.980 -0.033
Treasurer 0.964 0.961 0.980 1.000 -0.024
Judge of Probate -0.028 -0.027 -0.033 -0.024 1.000
Correlation of Republican vote tallies for statewide offices, 1849-1857
Governor Lieutenant Governor Secretary of the State Treasurer Judge of Probate
Governor 1.000 1.000 1.00 1.000 -0.039
Lieutenant Governor 1.000 1.000 1.00 1.000 -0.039
Secretary of the State 1.000 1.000 1.00 1.000 -0.040
Treasurer 1.000 1.000 1.00 1.000 -0.039
Judge of Probate -0.039 -0.039 -0.04 -0.039 1.000